Thursday, October 8, 2009

SUPERFANTASTIC LIGA ACB PREVIEW



So, you've sunk this low? You want to watch Liga ACB this season. Well, okay. After you've briefly considered where your life has gone wrong, you should read this thing. It ought to give you a decent idea of what to look for, in your quest for basketball nerd-dom.

THE CONTENDERS

This off-season has seen the gap between "the best" and "the rest" grow even wider, with Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Saski Baskonia all really strengthening what were already the best squads in the league. And we'll throw in Unicaja Malaga, Spain's other Euroleague representative, into the mix as well. You know, for funsies.

Barcelona have perhaps generated the most buzz, with last year's champions adding Ricky Rubio, Pete Mickael,Erazem Lorbek, Terrence Morris, and Boniface N'Dong to their squad. Basically, they're probably the deepest team in Europe, and this depth ought to serve them extremely well as they fight for both the ACB and Euroleague crowns. Their main concern will be with integrating all these new faces into the team, but because everyone seems to be given a very specific role, I don't imagine they'll have too much trouble. I'd certainly place the Blaugrana as the early favorites, with so many threats that opponents will really have to pick their poison.

Real Madrid's main addition is on the bench, with veteran coach Ettore Messina becoming one of many big names to come to the Spanish capital. But they've also added a lot of new players, both young and old, with Pablo Prigioni, Rimantas Kaukėnas, Sergi Vidal,Travis Hansen, Novica Veličković, and Jorge Garbajosa being the most notable newcomers. They'll have an almost completely new starting 5, with Felipe Reyes likely being the only holdover from last season. They'll likely be the main challengers, and just as in football they'll be doing it with a style of play likely to be very different to their main rivals. Whereas Barcelona seem to be somewhat predicated on creativity, with Ricky Rubio being their main symbol of this style, Real Madrid are likely to play in Messina's somewhat traditionally defensive posture, somewhat built around big man Felipe Reyes.

Saski Baskonia (now known as Caja Laboral for sponsorship reasons) have suffered some key losses, with Vidal, Prigioni, and Mickael all leaving to their two Spanish rivals. But they've done well in replacing those talents, with Marcelinho Huertas, Carl English, Walter Hermann, Lior Eliahu, Brad Oleson, Vladimir Micov, and Pau Ribas all coming in from what I'd deem a very savvy mercato. Built around Brazilian Tiago Splitter (in what will likely be his final season with the team), Tau...er, Caja Laboral seem to be somewhat predicated on a finesse game that will likely involve a lot of outside shooting. As such, they could well end up being a somewhat streaky team, certainly dangerous against anyone in Europe, but also somewhat at risk of losing games they likely shouldn't. They'll certainly challenge their two more glamorous rivals, although we'll have to see how their new players can step in for more proven predecessors.

Unicaja Malaga maintain a relatively similar squad to the one that nearly knocked Barcelona out in last year's semifinals. Unfortunately, the two players they did lose were likely the most important, in Carlos Cabezas (off to Khimki), and the previously mentioned Boniface N'Dong. They did somewhat make up for these departures, by bringing in high scoring point guard Pooh Jeter and Greek forward Gergios Printezis, but I just get the feeling that those two likely won't be able to really fill the shoes of their predecessors. I was often left sort of wondering how Unicaja were doing so well last season, and I think they could well fall back into the pack this year, not really competing with the "big three". But I'll leave them here, as the fourth contender, and the team likely to sort of provide the line between the big teams and everyone else.

TEAMS LOOKING FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT

You really could put just about everyone else in this category, but I'd say Valencia, Gran Canaria, DKV Joventut, Bilbao, Fuenlabrada, Estudiantes, and Bàsquet Manresa are the seven truly contending for the other four playoff spots. Someone else could (and likely will) pop up, but these teams have pretty strong squads and a history of being pretty good (for the most part). I really expect Valencia to make a resurgence this year after falling off a bit last season, and I think they could challenge Unicaja for that fourth spot. A squad with Florent Pietrus, Nando de Colo, Kosta Perović, and Víctor Claver (among others) is nothing to sneeze at. The other squads are somewhat of a mixed bag, with strong players either brought in from the bigger squads or from poorer leagues, and journeymen. The race for the playoffs will come down to a couple games, as it just about always does in Spain, and the line between relegation and a chance at the title really isn't THAT big, as Estudiantes nearly found out last season.

THOSE THAT MAY END UP IN LEB ORO NEXT YEAR

..the rest? Obradoiro CAB, Lucentum Alicante, and Valladolid, the promotees from the second division, all boast interesting squads. But it's really just a completely different game between ACB and LEB Oro, and these squads will all find the transition tough, and in my estimation are unlikely to make a real push for the playoffs. CB Granada, CB Murcia, Cajasol Sevilla, and San Sebastián all had to fight against relegation last year, and I expect it to be the same thing this season. All these squads, except perhaps for Valladolid, are really at a big financial disadvantage, and the difference between these squads and the playoff contenders seems to be growing every season.

So, there you go. The season starts Saturday, and we'll see just how wrong I am (prediction: very). Look for a similarly poorly formatted Euroleague preview...sometime next week. Peace?

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